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The Black Swan
The Black Swan
24 items under this folder.
Oct 14, 2026
Don't run for trains
idea
mindset
responsibility
happiness
Oct 12, 2026
Know the bell curve intimately enough to know where it fails
idea
statistics
epistemology
reasoning
Oct 12, 2026
Luck is the grand equalizer
idea
success
sociology
economics
Oct 12, 2026
Lumpy rewards make success feel like continuous failure
idea
success
resilience
psychology
Oct 12, 2026
Predicting a discovery means almost having made it
idea
epistemology
uncertainty
Oct 12, 2026
Scalable professions concentrate rewards and invite Black Swans
idea
uncertainty
success
economics
risk
Oct 12, 2026
Start from the exceptional and treat the ordinary as subordinate
idea
statistics
epistemology
uncertainty
Oct 12, 2026
Statistics stay silent while vivid deaths outrage us
idea
psychology
statistics
risk
Oct 12, 2026
Survival is not evidence of a cause
idea
epistemology
reasoning
probability
Oct 12, 2026
Ten principles for a Black-Swan-robust society
idea
risk
economics
policy
Oct 12, 2026
The antilibrary makes unread books more valuable than read ones
idea
epistemology
knowledge
Oct 12, 2026
The bell curve dismisses the jumps that matter most
idea
statistics
probability
risk
Oct 12, 2026
The cemetery of failures shares every trait of the millionaires
idea
success
reasoning
statistics
Oct 12, 2026
The cosmetic and the Platonic leave the unseen with no advocate
idea
epistemology
psychology
uncertainty
Oct 12, 2026
The four quadrants map where models are safe
idea
decision-making
risk
statistics
Oct 12, 2026
The law of iterated expectations makes the future unforecastable
idea
epistemology
uncertainty
probability
Oct 12, 2026
The mind's blind spots are one disease seen from five rooms
idea
epistemology
psychology
Oct 12, 2026
Tournament effects turn a marginal edge into winner-take-all
idea
success
economics
sociology
Oct 12, 2026
Waiting time grows the longer you have waited in Extremistan
idea
probability
uncertainty
statistics
Oct 12, 2026
We simplify because randomness will not fit in our heads
idea
epistemology
psychology
narrative
Oct 12, 2026
Escape the Fourth Quadrant by changing exposure, not prediction
idea
risk
decision-making
uncertainty
Oct 12, 2026
Forecast errors explode on novel projects
idea
uncertainty
decision-making
Oct 12, 2026
Mediocristan is tyranny of the collective, Extremistan of the singular
idea
uncertainty
probability
statistics
Oct 12, 2026
The bell curve's ubiquity is in our minds, not the world
idea
statistics
epistemology