Second Brain
Search
Search
Dark mode
Light mode
Reader mode
Explorer
probability
6 items with this tag.
Oct 12, 2026
Survival is not evidence of a cause
idea
epistemology
reasoning
probability
Oct 12, 2026
The bell curve dismisses the jumps that matter most
idea
statistics
probability
risk
Oct 12, 2026
The law of iterated expectations makes the future unforecastable
idea
epistemology
uncertainty
probability
Oct 12, 2026
Waiting time grows the longer you have waited in Extremistan
idea
probability
uncertainty
statistics
Oct 12, 2026
Fat-tailed distributions make extreme events inevitable
idea
mental-models
probability
uncertainty
Oct 12, 2026
Mediocristan is tyranny of the collective, Extremistan of the singular
idea
uncertainty
probability
statistics